As disheartening as it is for his supporters to hear, Donald Trump cannot win the Presidency. He has made way too many idiotic comments, done too many shady deals, and alienated too many voters to ever have a chance to win a general election. You won’t hear this from mainstream media, though. They don’t want you to know.
In fact, they want to extend the Trump situation for as long as possible. They want him to have hope. They want you to have hope. Their desire to see him as the GOP nominee is only surpassed by their desire to see him as a third-party candidate that would insure a Democratic victory regardless of who they put up as a candidate.
A recent comprehensive look at Trump’s chances by the National Review points to many of the reasons that Trump can’t win. Here are some of them:
- As candidate fall off after the early primaries, they will head towards other candidates but likely not Trump.
- He doesn’t have an ideological base; he has supporters from the center to the far right in equal measure.
- He does best on polls without college degrees. Anyone can take a poll but those with college degrees are more likely to actually vote.
- He has by far the highest percentage of “would never vote for” ratings among the major candidates.
- Women didn’t like him very much before the Megyn Kelly incident and they like him even less today.
The most important reason that Trump can’t win is that he has already peaked. Those who would really consider voting for him over other candidates have already shifted in his direction. That’s not the case with any other candidate. If Rand Paul drops out, for example, his base will likely shift to Ted Cruz or another conservative favorite. When Lindsay Graham falls, his supporters will head towards Bush or another moderate. Few of them will shift towards Trump because he’s polarizing within the party. In other words, he’s either the #1 choice for voters or the last resort. Very few would consider him their #2 or #3 choice because if you like him, you love him, and if you don’t like him, you hate him.
Conscientious conservatives hear what Trump is saying. We realize that many of his ideas and statements are clean and they sound like the type of changes we need in Washington DC. However, we also realize that what he says and what he’ll be able to do are two different things.
Strategic Democrats are hoping that the Trump circus will be performing for as long as possible for the same reasons that conservatives hope he’ll fade away as quickly as possible. Disruptions can be a positive force in the primaries and really at any point in an election, but they must be disruptions that promote a positive direction for the parties and more importantly for the country. Donald Trump is not creating a positive disruption. He’s making a spectacle of himself, the party, and the nation, distracting voters from learning about real candidates who have a chance of winning the general election.
The Democrats and the liberal mainstream media all know this. They are already pulling together dirt to throw at him if he gets the election. While Republicans seem to fire their weapons as soon as they’re available (as Hillary Clinton knows all too well), the left tends to be much more calculated with their attacks. They won’t take down Trump unless he has the GOP nomination secured. They don’t want him to leave. He’s turning the Republican Party into a drunken house party, leaving political destruction and chaos in his wake.
Most would agree that he has some good ideas and an attitude that is appealing to a disenchanted party longing for someone other than milquetoast John McCain, Mitt Romney, or Jeb Bush. However, he gas too much baggage to win the general election and liberals know this. Will conservative catch on to this fact before it’s too late?
As the National Review astutely noted:
The takeaway is pretty clear. Trump may have more appeal among tea-party and “very conservative” voters than among others, but he is primarily a protest candidate for the angry of all persuasions. Unless he can somehow persuade women, the college-educated, and those from the center and the center–left of the GOP to change their minds, he is very likely to find his upside limited as other candidates start to drop out, assuming that he is in for the duration. This suggests that an establishment alternative will still have the advantage, passions unleashed by Trump notwithstanding.